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Renewable Energy Data, Analysis, and Decisions: A Guide for Practitioners

  • Strategic Energy Analysis Center
  • Accelerated Deployment and Decision Support
  • United States Agency for International Development

Research output : NREL › Technical Report

NREL Publication Number

  • NREL/TP-6A20-68913
  • renewable energy

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  • 10.2172/1427970
  • https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/68913.pdf

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T1 - Renewable Energy Data, Analysis, and Decisions: A Guide for Practitioners

AU - Cox, Sarah

AU - Lopez, Anthony

AU - Watson, Andrea

AU - Grue, Nicholas

AU - Leisch, Jennifer

N2 - High-quality renewable energy resource data and other geographic information system (GIS) data are essential for the transition to a clean energy economy that prioritizes local resources, improves resiliency, creates jobs, and promotes energy independence. This guide is intended to support policymakers and planners, as well as technical experts, consultants, and academics in incorporating improved data and analysis into renewable energy decision-making.

AB - High-quality renewable energy resource data and other geographic information system (GIS) data are essential for the transition to a clean energy economy that prioritizes local resources, improves resiliency, creates jobs, and promotes energy independence. This guide is intended to support policymakers and planners, as well as technical experts, consultants, and academics in incorporating improved data and analysis into renewable energy decision-making.

KW - analysis

KW - decisions

KW - geospatial

KW - policies

KW - renewable energy

U2 - 10.2172/1427970

DO - 10.2172/1427970

M3 - Technical Report

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Detailed, accurate and timely data and statistics are essential for the monitoring and evaluation of renewable energy policies and deployment. IRENA helps analysts, policy makers and the public make informed decisions by providing access to comprehensive and up-to-date renewable energy data.

IRENA publishes detailed statistics on renewable energy capacity, power generation and renewable energy balances. This data is collected directly from members using the IRENA Renewable Energy Statistics questionnaire and is also supplemented by desk research where official statistics are not available. Renewable power-generation capacity statistics are released annually in March. Additionally, renewable power generation and renewable energy balances data sets are released in July.

IRENA’s statistics unit helps members to strengthen their data collection and reporting activities through training and methodological guidance. Member countries are encouraged to participate in this process. Explore IRENA data and statistics by browsing a wide range of topics such as Capacity and Generation, Costs, Finance and more on the menu.

renewable energy analysis of data

World Energy Transitions Outlook 2023: 1.5°C Pathway

IRENA’s 1.5°C Scenario, set out in the World Energy Transitions Outlook, presents a pathway to achieve the 1.5°C target by 2050, positioning electrification and efficiency as key transition drivers, enabled by renewable energy, clean hydrogen and sustainable biomass.

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  • Innovation & Technology
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  • Finance & investment
  • Renewable Energy Balances

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Renewables 2020

  • The world after strict lockdowns
  • January to June renewable electricity capacity additions
  • Pre-crisis policies will have at least as much impact as Covid-19 on the future of renewable technologies
  • Renewable industry equity performance
  • Impact of Covid-19 crisis on renewable electricity penetration and prices
  • Renewable energy in heat and transport is less resilient
  • Forecast summary
  • Forecast overview
  • United States
  • The Netherlands
  • Chile, Argentina and Colombia
  • Middle East and North Africa
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Biomass electricity
  • Ethanol markets
  • Biodiesel and HVO markets
  • Covid-19 impact on global heat demand
  • Renewable heat demand in 2020-22
  • Renewable heat prospects towards 2025
  • Renewable heat in stimulus packages
  • Where are we at with clean energy stimulus?
  • Are wind and PV expansion emerging beyond common policy schemes?
  • Will large oil and gas producers become major renewable electricity investors?
  • Are system operators curtailing too much wind and solar electricity?
  • Are governments missing an opportunity to accelerate sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) deployment?
  • Is it “full steam ahead” for renewable shipping fuels?

Cite report

IEA (2020), Renewables 2020 , IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2020, Licence: CC BY 4.0

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Executive summary, renewables’ resilience is driven by the electricity sector.

In sharp contrast to all other fuels, renewables used for generating electricity will grow by almost 7% in 2020. Global energy demand is set to decline 5% – but long-term contracts, priority access to the grid and continuous installation of new plants are all underpinning strong growth in renewable electricity. This more than compensates for declines in bioenergy for industry and biofuels for transport – mostly the result of lower economic activity. The net result is an overall increase of 1% in renewable energy demand in 2020.

Change in energy demand and renewables output in electricity, heat and transport, 2019 to 2020

Despite looming economic uncertainties, investor appetite for renewables remains strong. From January to October 2020, auctioned renewable capacity was 15% higher than for the same period last year, a new record. At the same time, the shares of publicly listed renewable equipment manufacturers and project developers have been outperforming most major stock market indices and the overall energy sector. This is thanks to expectations of healthy business growth and finances over the medium term. In October 2020, shares of solar companies worldwide had more than doubled in value from December 2019.

Renewable power additions defy Covid to set new record

Driven by China and the United States, net installed renewable capacity will grow by nearly 4% globally in 2020, reaching almost 200 GW. Higher additions of wind and hydropower are taking global renewable capacity additions to a new record this year, accounting for almost 90% of the increase in total power capacity worldwide. Solar PV growth is expected to remain stable as a faster expansion of utility-scale projects compensates for the decline in rooftop additions resulting from individuals and companies reprioritising investments. Wind and solar PV additions are set to jump by 30% in both the People’s Republic of China (“China”) and the United States as developers rush to complete projects before changes in policy take effect.

The renewables industry has adapted quickly to the challenges of the Covid crisis. We have revised the IEA forecast for global renewable capacity additions in 2020 upwards by 18% from our previous update in May. Supply chain disruptions and construction delays slowed the progress of renewable energy projects in the first six months of 2020. However, construction of plants and manufacturing activity ramped up again quickly, and logistical challenges have been mostly resolved with the easing of cross-border restrictions since mid-May. Our new database for monthly capacity additions shows that they have exceeded previous expectations through September, pointing to a faster recovery in Europe, the United States and China.

Renewable capacity additions by country/region 2019-2021

Europe and india will lead a renewables surge in 2021.

Renewable capacity additions are on track for a record expansion of nearly 10% in 2021. Two factors should drive the acceleration, leading to the fastest growth since 2015. First, the commissioning of delayed projects in markets where construction and supply chains were disrupted. Prompt government measures in key markets – the United States, India and some European countries – have authorised developers to complete projects several months after policy or auction deadlines that originally fell at the end of 2020. Second, growth is set to continue in 2021 in some markets – such as the United States, the Middle East and Latin America – where the pre-Covid project pipeline was robust thanks to continued cost declines and uninterrupted policy support.

India is expected to be the largest contributor to the renewables upswing in 2021, with the country’s annual additions almost doubling from 2020. A large number of auctioned wind and solar PV projects are expected to become operational following delays due not only to Covid-19 but also to contract negotiations and land acquisition challenges.

In the European Union, capacity additions are forecast to jump in 2021. This is mainly the result of previously auctioned utility-scale solar PV and wind projects in France and Germany coming online. Growth is supported by member states’ policies to meet the bloc’s 2030 renewable energy target and by the EU recovery fund providing low-cost financing and grants. In the Middle East and North Africa region and Latin America, renewable energy additions recover in 2021, led by the commissioning of projects awarded previously in competitive auctions.

Increasing policy certainty in key markets could significantly boost renewables deployment

Renewables are resilient to the Covid-19 crisis but not to policy uncertainties. The expiry of incentives in key markets and the resulting policy uncertainties lead to a small decline in renewables capacity additions in 2022 in our main forecast. In China, onshore wind and solar PV subsidies expire this year, while offshore wind support ends in 2021. The policy framework for 2021-25 will be announced at the end of next year, leaving uncertainty over the pace of renewables expansion in China in 2022 and beyond. Renewable additions are also set to be held back in 2022 by the expiry of production tax credits for onshore wind in the United States, the ongoing financial struggles of distribution companies in India, and delayed auctions in Latin America. In particular, onshore wind additions are expected to decline by 15% globally, while offshore wind expansion continues to accelerate around the world.

If countries address policy uncertainties, as in our Accelerated Case, global solar PV and wind additions could each increase by a further 25% in 2022. This would push renewable capacity additions to a record 271 GW. China alone would account for 30% of the increase. The solar PV annual market could reach about 150 GW – an increase of almost 40% in just three years. In the United States, if additional policies for clean electricity are implemented, solar PV and wind may see much more rapid deployment, contributing to a faster decarbonisation of the US power sector.

Solar PV capacity additions, 2015-2022, main and accelerated cases

Renewables are set to lead the global electricity sector.

Cost reductions and sustained policy support are expected to drive strong renewables growth beyond 2022. Despite the challenges emerging from the Covid crisis, the fundamentals of renewable energy expansion have not changed. Solar PV and onshore wind are already the cheapest ways of adding new electricity-generating plants in most countries today. In countries where good resources and cheap financing are available, wind and solar PV plants will challenge existing fossil fuel plants. Solar projects now offer some of the lowest-cost electricity in history. Overall, renewables are set to account for 95% of the net increase in global power capacity through 2025.

Total installed wind and solar PV capacity is on course to surpass natural gas in 2023 and coal in 2024. Solar PV alone accounts for 60% of all renewable capacity additions through 2025, and wind provides another 30%. Driven by further cost declines, annual offshore wind additions are set to surge, accounting for one-fifth of the total wind annual market in 2025. Offshore’s growth moves beyond Europe to new markets such as China and the United States where ample potential remains. The rapid growth of variable renewables around the world calls for increased policy attention to ensure they are securely and cost-effectively integrated into electricity systems.

Total installed power capacity by fuel and technology 2019-2025, main case

Renewables will overtake coal to become the largest source of electricity generation worldwide in 2025. By that time, they are expected to supply one-third of the world’s electricity. Hydropower will continue to supply almost half of global renewable electricity. It is by far the largest source of renewable electricity worldwide, followed by wind and solar PV.

Renewables’ continued cost declines are changing the investor landscape and the role of policies. The share of renewables’ growth coming from purely market-based settings – outside of policy programmes like auctions and feed-in tariffs – triples from less than 5% today to more than 15% through 2025. This includes corporate power purchase agreements, plants with higher exposure to wholesale power prices or other contracts. While policies and regulatory frameworks remain critically important to provide long-term revenue stability, competition will continue to drive contract prices down. Auctions and green certificate schemes are forecast to cover 60% of renewable capacity expansion globally over the next five years. Major oil and gas companies’ investments in new renewable electricity capacity are expected to increase tenfold from 2020 to 2025

Covid causes biofuels’ first contraction in two decades

The biofuels industry has been strongly impacted by the Covid crisis . Global transport biofuel production in 2020 is anticipated to decline by 12% from 2019’s record. This is the first reduction in annual production in two decades, driven by both lower transport fuel demand and lower fossil fuel prices diminishing the economic attractiveness of biofuels. The biggest year-on-year drops in output are for US and Brazilian ethanol and European biodiesel.

Global biofuel production in 2019 and breakdown for 2020

A recovery in fuel demand and stronger policies in key markets can spur a rebound in production in 2021 and sustained growth through 2025. The greatest production increases in this case would be for ethanol in China and Brazil, and for biodiesel and hydrotreated vegetable oil in the United States and Southeast Asia.

The demand shock hurts renewable heat consumption

The drop in economic activity due to the pandemic is forecast to impact heat consumption in industry more than in buildings. This affects demand for renewables, especially bioenergy use in industry. Elsewhere, Covid-19 has had a limited direct impact on short-term renewable heat consumption. Even though global electricity demand for heat is falling in industry and buildings, heat-related renewable electricity consumption is set to rise in both sectors in 2020 owing to higher shares of renewables in electricity generation.

The share of renewable heat is expected to remain broadly constant over the next five years . Global renewable heat consumption is projected to be 20% higher in 2025 than it was in 2019, with a stronger increase in the buildings sector than in industry. Despite this rise, renewables are on course to represent only 12% of global heat consumption by 2025, as the overall market is expected to expand, driven by industrial activity. Without a significant change in non-renewable heat consumption, total heat-related CO2 emissions in 2025 are expected to be only 2% lower than in 2019.

Recent policy momentum has the potential to give renewable energy use an extra boost

Economic stimulus measures focused on clean energy can directly or indirectly support renewables. While the majority of the USD 470 billion in energy-related stimulus packages announced by individual countries so far is primarily aimed at providing short-term economic relief, we estimate around USD 108 billion targets economic growth with a focus on clean energy. These measures can support renewables by providing additional financial support either directly – or indirectly through areas such as buildings, grids, electric vehicles and low-carbon hydrogen. This is also the case for the forthcoming EU economic recovery plan, which is expected to contain an estimated USD 310 billion of climate-related spending.

Renewable fuels for transport are an area of particular potential support, as the sector has been severely hit by the crisis. More can and should be done, however. For example, only two out of the 30 airlines worldwide that have received government support in response to the crisis were bound to environmental conditions, and only two have been required to commit to a sustainable aviation fuel blending level of 2%.

Government financial support to the aviation industry by type of conditions attached

Net-zero emission targets in key markets are expected to accelerate the deployment of renewables . Following the European Union and several European countries, three major Asian economies recently announced targets for reaching net-zero emissions: Japan and South Korea by 2050, and China by 2060. While it is too early to assess their precise impacts, these stated ambitions are very likely to further accelerate the deployment of renewables across all sectors, with potentially significant effects on global markets.

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Renewable Energy

Renewable energy sources are growing quickly and will play a vital role in tackling climate change..

Since the Industrial Revolution, the energy mix of most countries across the world has become dominated by fossil fuels. This has major implications for the global climate, as well as for human health. Three-quarters of global greenhouse gas emissions result from the burning of fossil fuels for energy. Fossil fuels are responsible for large amounts of local air pollution – a health problem that leads to at least 5 million premature deaths each year.

To reduce CO 2 emissions and local air pollution, the world needs to rapidly shift towards low-carbon sources of energy – nuclear and renewable technologies.

Renewable energy will play a key role in decarbonizing our energy systems in the coming decades. But how rapidly is our production of renewable energy changing? What technologies look most promising in transforming our energy mix?

In this article we look at the data on renewable energy technologies across the world; what share of energy they account for today, and how quickly this is changing.

Renewable energy generation

How much of our primary energy comes from renewables.

We often hear about the rapid growth of renewable technologies in media reports. But how much of an impact has this growth had on our energy systems?

In this interactive chart, we see the share of primary energy consumption that came from renewable technologies – the combination of hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal, wave, tidal, and modern biofuels. Traditional biomass – which can be an important energy source in lower-income settings is not included.

Note that this data is based on primary energy calculated by the 'substitution method' which attempts to correct for the inefficiencies in fossil fuel production. It does this by converting non-fossil fuel sources to their 'input equivalents': the amount of primary energy that would be required to produce the same amount of energy if it came from fossil fuels.

Approximately one-seventh of the world's primary energy is now sourced from renewable technologies.

Note that this is based on renewable energy's share in the energy mix. Energy consumption represents the sum of electricity, transport, and heating. We look at the electricity mix later in this article.

Breakdown of renewables in the energy mix

In the section above we looked at what share renewable technologies collectively accounted for in the energy mix.

In the charts shown here, we look at the breakdown of renewable technologies by their components – hydropower, solar, wind, and others.

The first chart shows this as a stacked area chart, which allows us to more readily see the breakdown of the renewable mix and the relative contribution of each. The second chart is shown as a line chart, allowing us to see more clearly how each source is changing over time.

Globally we see that hydropower is by far the largest modern renewable source. However, we also see wind and solar power both growing rapidly.

Renewables in the electricity mix

How much of our electricity comes from renewables.

In the sections above we looked at the role of renewables in the total energy mix . This includes not only electricity but also transport and heating. Electricity forms only one component of energy consumption.

Since transport and heating tend to be harder to decarbonize – they are more reliant on oil and gas – renewables tend to have a higher share in the electricity mix versus the total energy mix.

This interactive chart shows the share of electricity that comes from renewable technologies.

Globally, almost one-third of our electricity comes from renewables.

Hydropower generation

Hydroelectric power has been one of our oldest and largest sources of low-carbon energy. Hydroelectric generation at scale dates back more than a century, and is still our largest renewable source – excluding traditional biomass, it still accounts for approximately half of renewable generation.

However, the scale of hydroelectric power generation varies significantly across the world. This interactive chart shows its contribution by country.

Share of primary energy that comes from hydropower

This interactive chart shows the share of primary energy that comes from hydropower.

Share of electricity that comes from hydropower

This interactive chart shows the share of electricity that comes from hydropower.

Wind energy

Wind energy generation.

This interactive chart shows the amount of energy generated from wind each year. This includes both onshore and offshore wind farms.

Wind generation at scale – compared to hydropower, for example – is a relatively modern renewable energy source but is growing quickly in many countries across the world.

Installed wind capacity

The previous section looked at the energy output from wind farms across the world. Energy output is a function of power (installed capacity) multiplied by the time of generation.

Energy generation is therefore a function of how much wind capacity is installed. This interactive chart shows installed wind capacity – including both onshore and offshore – across the world.

Share of primary energy that comes from wind

This interactive chart shows the share of primary energy that comes from wind.

Share of electricity that comes from wind

This interactive chart shows the share of electricity that comes from wind.

Solar energy

Solar energy generation.

This interactive chart shows the amount of energy generated from solar power each year.

Solar generation at scale – compared to hydropower, for example – is a relatively modern renewable energy source but is growing quickly in many countries across the world.

Installed solar capacity

The previous section looked at the energy output from solar across the world. Energy output is a function of power (installed capacity) multiplied by the time of generation.

Energy generation is therefore a function of how much solar capacity is installed. This interactive chart shows installed solar capacity across the world.

Share of primary energy that comes from solar

This interactive chart shows the share of primary energy that comes from solar power.

Share of electricity that comes from solar

This interactive chart shows the share of electricity that comes from solar power.

Biofuel production

Traditional biomass – the burning of charcoal, organic wastes, and crop residues – was an important energy source for a long period of human history. It remains an important source in lower-income settings today. However, high-quality estimates of energy consumption from these sources are difficult to find. The Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy – our main data source on energy – only publishes data on commercially traded energy, so traditional biomass is not included.

However, modern biofuels are included in this energy data. Bioethanol and biodiesel – fuel made from crops such as corn, sugarcane, hemp, and cassava – are now a key transport fuel in many countries.

This interactive chart shows modern biofuel production across the world.

Installed geothermal capacity

This interactive chart shows the installed capacity of geothermal energy across the world.

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March 27, 2024

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High-resolution solar data enables renewable energy expansion across two continents

by Tim Meehan, National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Game-changing high-resolution solar data enables renewable energy expansion across two continents

More than 20 years of research in solar radiation at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is now poised to advance power system planning and solar energy deployment across Africa, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East.

It comes in the form of a new, high-resolution solar timeseries data set on the Renewable Energy Data Explorer (RE Data Explorer) tool , tailored to the needs of stakeholders in energy sectors across national governments, academia, and private industry.

Development of the data set was motivated by the unique challenges facing two countries working with NREL and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID): Tanzania and Ukraine. In both countries, the availability of reliable, long-term resource data is a barrier in accelerating the deployment of renewable energy.

In Ukraine, planners are working to find ways to rebuild and decentralize a grid that has been crippled by Russia's full-scale invasion. And in Tanzania—as is the case with many countries in Africa—reliable, detailed data has been historically difficult to access for planners and developers alike.

Partnering through USAID for a clean energy future

"I always admire the kind of support USAID provides to our partner countries because I don't see who else is going to do it," NREL's Tanzania technical lead Kwami Sedzro said. "If they did not provide that funding to help these countries and actually get their hands dirty on these challenges that the grid is facing now and will be facing with more renewables tomorrow, these projects might not happen."

Undertaking a project of this size required collaborative effort. The USAID Missions, or satellite offices, in Ukraine and Tanzania first worked with their partners at NREL to establish what the research and analysis priorities for each country would be. Based on those priorities, the team at NREL saw how this data set could address some of their overlapping needs.

"Rather than processing all of the data twice and splitting the regions, or just processing one region, it's way more efficient to do it together," NREL's Ukraine program lead Ilya Chernyakhovskiy said. "This way, both regions benefit."

Bird's-eye view: How the data is collected and disseminated

RE Data Explorer is a publicly available geospatial analysis tool that gives users the ability to access renewable energy data customized to their needs. Its data can feed into tools such as the System Advisor Model , PVWatts , and others that can inform ongoing and future analysis, policymaking, and power system planning. RE Data Explorer has thousands of dedicated users who have shared how its capabilities are instrumental in their clean energy project development, long-term energy planning, and academic research.

To produce this new data set, the researchers compiled data sources covering Africa, Europe, and the Middle East from 2005 through 2022. Using imagery captured every 15 minutes by the European Union's (EU) Meteosat geostationary weather satellites, NREL's partners at the University of Wisconsin modeled key factors like cloud cover and composition.

NREL also integrated satellite data from NASA representing aerosols (such as smoke, dust, and other airborne particulates) to estimate the solar irradiance reaching the surface on a four-kilometer (km) grid.

"The path of solar radiation through the atmosphere is very complex," Geospatial Data Science (GDS) group manager Galen Maclaurin said. "The most important component in modeling solar radiation as it reaches the surface is clouds. How thick are they? How high are they? What is the optical thickness? Are they formed mostly of liquid or frozen water, and what is the average particle size?"

The cloud properties are then run through NREL's radiative transfer model —called the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar (FARMS)—on the laboratory's high-performance supercomputer, pixel by pixel, time step by time step, to create a high-resolution grid over the 18-year period of the final data set.

Having easy and free access to these robust data is vital for solar developers and potential purchasers of the electricity (e.g., a public utility) because it helps them estimate the expected amount of electricity generated for a given percentage of years of a project, which informs an important parameter called the exceedance probability.

"Those numbers are important because they're used to inform project risk and help secure financing. To calculate exceedance probabilities, you need the long-term record of the solar resource to represent interannual variability, and this feeds into project bankability," Maclaurin explained. "It provides an assessment of the generation potential and its uncertainty, and thus informs the project risk for a financier or a bank."

Building Ukrainian grid resilience through renewable energy

In Ukraine, planners and developers are looking to incorporate more renewable energy as the country rebuilds its grid and searches for new means to become less dependent on foreign resources.

"The focus is all about making the grid more resilient during the war and rebuilding," Chernyakhovskiy explained. "One of the goals for the Ukrainian Ministry of Energy is to rely less on imports of natural gas and imports of diesel for backup generators. They hope to utilize domestic wind and solar resources while diversifying the geographic concentration of power system resources; that's really where they're interested in renewables right now."

A major hurdle Ukraine faces, however, is easily accessible, accurate, detailed information on its wind and solar output capabilities. Chernyakhovskiy said because Ukraine is not yet part of the EU, many of the more detailed data sets for the EU do not include Ukraine. "It really helps with planning and understanding where the resources are—where it is most cost effective to build distributed resources that will help to decentralize the grid," he explained.

Part of what makes grid planning in Ukraine difficult is the diversity of solar and wind resources and thus potential generation. The spatial and temporal variability of solar irradiance captured in this new data set, for example, gives planners and developers a clear picture of where they could competitively build photovoltaics (PV) as they work to decentralize the grid. This long-term, time series data set is vital in making new deployment a reality because it creates confidence in the analysis.

"It's an enabler to help planners, utilities, and developers accelerate their adoption of renewables because they can skip the step of doing a site-by-site assessment of the resource," Chernyakhovskiy said.

Beyond solar data, the USAID Ukraine Mission is interested in generating robust, long-term wind data as well. Using a novel methodology developed at NREL, a team in NREL's Strategic Energy Analysis Center is creating a high-resolution data set by using artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms to downscale (or increase the spatial and temporal resolutions) of existing climate models. To do that, they train the AI model on high-resolution modeled data for the United States then apply it to lower-resolution climate data for Ukraine. This method builds on recent work by USAID and NREL's Advanced Energy Partnership for Asia to produce high-resolution wind data for Southeast Asia.

"We're pretty excited about applying that kind of state-of-the-art method to Ukraine, and that really gave us the ability to cover the whole country for such a long time series at such high resolution," Chernyakhovskiy said.

The new Ukraine wind data will be released in the coming weeks on RE Data Explorer , followed by a webinar later this spring.

Making a difference in Tanzanian grid planning

On the other side of the equator, the USAID Tanzania Mission is working to help the country achieve its own renewable energy goals. Currently, Tanzania is working toward decarbonizing its grid, with a 30%–35% conditional emissions-reduction target by 2030, per Tanzania's Nationally Determined Contributions in the United Nations Development Program's Climate Promise.

By making the new, long-term time series data set easy to access and freely available to the public, Tanzania and other African nations are better poised to accomplish their energy goals.

"This is a big deal to have a solar data set that we can trust for Africa; it's going to be a game changer," Sedzro said. "Providing these data is going to be very helpful for the industry as a whole in Africa, because then people can be motivated to invest in the technology."

Sedzro is going to Tanzania in April to train planners, utilities, and developers in Tanzania and other African countries like Ghana to use the solar data set to effectively plan PV deployment.

"They're able to see how much they can get out of the data, and they can do their math and decide whether they want to go here or there based on the solar time series data," he explained. "You can see the irradiance values that you get today, and you can use that data to predict what's going to happen tomorrow. You're planning a system for tomorrow."

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A blurred vehicle races past wind turbines.

America’s green manufacturing boom, from EV batteries to solar panel production, isn’t powered by renewable energy − yet

renewable energy analysis of data

Professor of Environmental Studies, Wellesley College

Disclosure statement

James Morton Turner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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Panasonic’s new US$4 billion battery factory in De Soto, Kansas, is designed to be a model of sustainability – it’s an all-electric factory with no need for a smokestack. When finished, it will cover the size of 48 football fields, employ 4,000 people and produce enough advanced batteries to supply half a million electric cars per year.

But there’s a catch, and it’s a big one.

While the factory will run on wind and solar power much of the time, renewables supplied only 34% of the local utility Evergy’s electricity in 2023.

In much of the U.S., fossil fuels still play a key role in meeting power demand. In fact, Evergy has asked permission to extend the life of an old coal-fired power plant to meet growing demand, including from the battery factory.

With my students at Wellesley College, I’ve been tracking the boom in investments in clean energy manufacturing and how those projects – including battery, solar panel and wind turbine manufacturing and their supply chains – map onto the nation’s electricity grid .

The Kansas battery plant highlights the challenges ahead as the U.S. scales up production of clean energy technologies and weans itself off fossil fuels. It also illustrates the potential for this industry to accelerate the transition to renewable energy nationwide.

The clean tech manufacturing boom

Let’s start with some good news.

In the battery sector alone, companies have announced plans to build 44 major factories with the potential to produce enough battery cells to supply more than 10 million electric vehicles per year in 2030.

That is the scale of commitment needed if the U.S. is going to tackle climate change and meet its new auto emissions standards announced in March 2024.

The challenge: These battery factories, and the electric vehicles they equip, are going to require a lot of electricity.

Producing enough battery cells to store 1 kilowatt-hour (kWh) of electricity – enough for 2 to 4 miles of range in an EV – requires about 30 kWh of manufacturing energy, according to a recent study .

Combining that estimate and our tracking , we project that in 2030, battery manufacturing in the U.S. would require about 30 billion kWh of electricity per year, assuming the factories run on electricity, like the one in Kansas. That equates to about 2% of all U.S. industrial electricity used in 2022.

Battery belt’s huge solar potential

A large number of these plants are planned in a region of the U.S. South dubbed the “ battery belt .” Solar energy potential is high in much of the region, but the power grid makes little use of it .

Our tracking found that three-fourths of the battery manufacturing capacity is locating in states with lower-than-average renewable electricity generation today. And in almost all of those places, more demand will drive higher marginal emissions , because that extra power almost always comes from fossil fuels.

However, we have also been tracking which battery companies are committing to powering their manufacturing operations with renewable electricity, and the data points to a cleaner future.

By our count, half of the batteries will be manufactured at factories that have committed to sourcing at least 50% of their electricity demand from renewables by 2030. Even better, these commitments are concentrated in regions of the U.S. where investments have lagged.

Some companies are already taking action. Tesla is building the world’s largest solar array on the roof of its Texas factory. LG has committed to sourcing 100% renewable solar and hydroelectricity for its new cathode factory in Tennessee. And Panasonic is taking steps to reach net-zero emissions for all of its factories, including the new one in Kansas, by 2030.

More corporate commitments can help strengthen demand for the deployment of wind and solar across the emerging battery belt.

What that means for US electricity demand

Manufacturing all of these batteries and charging all of these electric vehicles is going to put a lot more demand on the power grid. But that isn’t an argument against EVs. Anything that plugs into the grid, whether it is an EV or the factory that manufacturers its batteries, gets cleaner as more renewable energy sources come online.

This transition is already happening. Although natural gas dominates electricity generation, in 2023 renewables supplied more electricity than coal for the first time in U.S. history. The government forecasts that in 2024, 96% of new electricity generating capacity added to the grid would be fossil fuel-free, including batteries. These trends are accelerating, thanks to the incentives for clean energy deployment included in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act.

Looking ahead

The big lesson here is that the challenge in Kansas is not the battery factory – it is the increasingly antiquated electricity grid.

As investments in a clean energy future accelerate, America will need to reengineer much of its power grid to run on more and more renewables and, simultaneously, electrify everything from cars to factories to homes.

That means investing in modernizing, expanding and decarbonizing the electric grid is as important as building new factories or shifting to electric cars.

Investments in clean energy manufacturing will play a key role in enabling that transition: Some of the new advanced batteries will be used on the grid, providing backup energy storage for times when renewable energy generation slows or electricity demand is especially high.

In January, Hawaii replaced its last coal-fired power plant with an advanced battery system. It won’t be long before that starts to happen in Tennessee, Texas and Kansas, too.

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AI companies eye fossil fuels to meet booming energy demand

Recent reports suggest renewable energy sources alone won’t be enough to meet data centers' increasingly intensive power needs.

By Mack DeGeurin | Published Mar 25, 2024 2:00 PM EDT

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It takes massive amounts of energy to power the data center brains of popular artificial intelligence models . That demand is only growing. In 2024, many of Silicon Valley’s largest tech giants and hoards of budding, well-funded startups have (very publically) aligned themselves with climate action–awash with PR about their sustainability goals, their carbon neutral pledges , and their promises to prioritize recycled materials . But as AI’s intensive energy demands become more apparent, it seems like many of those supposed green priorities could be jeopardized. 

A March International Energy Agency forecast estimates input-hungry AI models and cryptocurrency mining combined could cause data centers worldwide to double their energy use in just two years . Recent reports suggest tech leaders interested in staying relevant in the booming AI race may consider turning to old-fashioned, carbon-emitting energy sources to help meet that demand. 

AI models need more energy to power data centers 

Though precise figures measuring AI’s energy consumption remain a matter of debate, it’s increasingly clear complex data centers required to train and power those systems are energy-intensive. A recently released peer reviewed data analysis, energy demands from AI servers in 2027 could be on par with those of Argentina, the Netherlands, or Sweden combined . Production of new data centers isn’t slowing down either. Just last week, Washington Square Journal reports, Amazon Web Service Vice President of Engineering Bill Vass told an audience at an energy industry event in Texas he believes a new data center is being built every three days. Other energy industry leaders speaking at the event, like Former U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, argued renewable energy production may fall short of what is  needed to power this projected data center growth. 

“We’re not going to build 100 gigawatts of new renewables in a few years,” Moniz said. The Obama-era energy secretary went on to say unmet energy demands brought on by AI, primarily via electricity, would require tapping into more natural gas and coal power plants. When it comes to meeting energy demands with renewables, he said, “you’re kind of stuck.” 

Others, like Dominion Energy CEO Robert Blue say the increased energy demand has led them to build out a new gas power plant while also trying to meet a 2050 net-zero goal. Other natural gas company executives speaking with the Journal , meanwhile claim tech firms building out data setters have expressed interest in using a natural gas energy source. 

Tech companies already have a checkered record on sustainability promises

A sudden reinterest in non-renewable energy sources to fuel an AI boom could contradict net zero carbon timelines and sustainability pledges made by major tech companies in recent years. Microsoft and Google, who are locked in a battle over quickly evolving generative AI tools like ChatGPT and Gemini, have both outlined plans to have net negative emissions in coming years . Apple, which reportedly shuttered its long-running car unit in order to devote resources towards AI, aims to become carbon neutral across its global supply chains by 2030 . The Biden administration meanwhile has ambitiously pledged the US to have a carbon pollution free electricity sector by 2035.  

[ Related: Dozens of companies with ‘net-zero’ goals just got called out for greenwashing ]

Critics argue some of these climate pledges, particularly those heralded by large tech firms, may seem impressive on paper but have already fallen short in key areas. Multiple independent monitors in recent years have criticized large tech companies for allegedly failing to properly disclose their greenhouse gas emissions . Others have dinged tech firms for heavily basing their sustainability strategies around carbon offsets as opposed to potentially more effective solutions like reducing energy consumption. The alluring race for AI dominance risks stretching those already strained goals even further. 

AI boom has led to new data centers popping up around the US

Appetites for electricity are rising around the country. In Georgia, according to a recent Washington Post report, expected energy production within the state in the next ten years is 17 times larger than what it was recently. Northern Virginia, according to the same report, could require the energy equivalent of several nuclear power plants to meet the increased demand from planned data centers currently under construction. New data centers have popped up in both of those states in recent years. Lobbyists representing traditional coal and gas energy providers, the Post claims, are simultaneously urging government offices to delay retiring some fossil fuel plants in order to meet increasing energy demands. Data centers in the US alone were responsible for 4% of the county’s overall energy use in 2022 according to the IEA. That figure will only grow as more and more AI-focused facilities come online. 

At the same time, some of the AI industry’s-starkest proponents have argued these very same energy intensive models may prove instrumental in helping scale-up renewable energy sources and develop technologies to counteract the most destructive aspects of climate change. Previous reports argue powerful AI models could improve the efficiency of oils and gas facilities by improving underground mapping. AI simulation modes, similarly could help engineers develop optimal designs for wind or solar plants that could bring down their cost and increase their desirability as an energy source. Microsoft, who partners with OpenAI, is reportedly already using generative AI tools to try and streamline the regulatory approval process for nuclear reactors . Those future reactors, in theory, would then be used to generate the electricity needed to quench its AI models’ energy thirst. 

Fossil-fuel powered AI prioritizes long-term optimism over current day climate realities 

The problem with those more optimistic outlooks is that they remain, for the time being at least, mostly hypothetical and severely lacking in real-word data. AI models may increase the efficiency and affordability of renewable resources long term, but they risk doing so by pushing down on the accelerator of non-renewable resources right now. And with energy demands surging in other industries outside of tech at the same time, these optimistic longer-term outlooks could serve to justify splurging on natural gas and goal in the short term. Underpinning all of this is a worsening climate outlook that the overwhelming majority of climate scientists and international organizations agree demands radical action to reduce emissions as soon as possible. Renewable energy sources are on the rise in the US but tech firms looking for easier available sources of electricity to power their next AI projects risk setting back that progress. 

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The United States was the world’s largest liquefied natural gas exporter in 2023

The United States exported more liquefied natural gas (LNG) than any other country in 2023. U.S. LNG exports averaged 11.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d)—a 12% increase (1.3 Bcf/d) compared with 2022, according to data from our Natural Gas Monthly .

LNG exports from Australia and Qatar—the world’s two other largest LNG exporters—each ranged from 10.1 Bcf/d to 10.5 Bcf/d annually between 2020 and 2023, according to data from Cedigaz . Russia and Malaysia were the fourth- and fifth-highest LNG exporters globally over the last five years (2019–23). In 2023, LNG exports from Russia averaged 4.2 Bcf/d, and exports from Malaysia average 3.5 Bcf/d.

U.S. LNG exports increased in the first half of 2023 after Freeport LNG returned to service in February and ramped up to full production by April. Relatively strong demand for LNG in Europe amid high international natural gas prices supported increased U.S. LNG exports during the year. U.S. LNG exports set monthly records late last year: 12.9 Bcf/d in November, followed by 13.6 Bcf/d in December. We estimate that utilization of U.S. LNG export capacity averaged 104% of nominal capacity and 86% of peak capacity across the seven U.S. LNG terminals operating in 2023.

Similar to 2022, Europe (including Türkiye) remained the primary destination for U.S. LNG exports in 2023 , accounting for 66% (7.8 Bcf/d) of U.S. exports, followed by Asia at 26% (3.1 Bcf/d) and Latin America and the Middle East with a combined 8% (0.9 Bcf/d).

In 2023, Europe (EU-27 and the UK) continued to import LNG to compensate for the loss of natural gas previously supplied by pipeline from Russia . Europe’s LNG imports capacity continued to expand, and we expect it will increase by more than one-third between 2021 and 2024 .

The countries that imported the most U.S. LNG were the Netherlands, France, and the UK, with a combined 35% (4.2 Bcf/d) of all U.S. LNG exports. LNG imports increased in the Netherlands after the Gate LNG regasification terminal was expanded and two new floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs) were commissioned. Germany began importing LNG in 2023 when three new FSRUs were commissioned. We expect another four terminals (three of which are FSRUs) to come online between 2024 and 2027.

In Asia, Japan and South Korea each received 0.8 Bcf/d of LNG exports from the United States, the fourth- and fifth-highest U.S. LNG export volumes by country in 2023. Japan, China, and India increased LNG imports from the United States by a combined 0.6 Bcf/d compared with 2022. The Philippines and Vietnam started importing LNG in 2023; the Philippines imported LNG cargoes from the United States only in October and November.

In Latin America, U.S. LNG exports to Brazil continued to decline last year as Brazil continued to primarily use hydropower for electricity generation. U.S. LNG exports to Brazil peaked in 2021, when the country experienced its worst drought in more than 90 years.

Principal contributor: Victoria Zaretskaya

Tags: natural gas , international , exports/imports , United States , liquid fuels , Australia , LNG (liquefied natural gas) , Qatar , Russia

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Sustainable Aviation Fuel

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is an alternative fuel made from non-petroleum feedstocks that reduces emissions from air transportation. SAF can be blended at different levels with limits between 10% and 50%, depending on the feedstock and how the fuel is produced. According to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), over 360,000 commercial flights have used SAF at 46 different airports largely concentrated in the United States and Europe.

Worldwide, aviation accounts for 2% of all carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and 12% of all CO 2 emissions from transportation. ICAO's Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) caps net CO 2 aviation emissions at 2020 levels through 2035. The international aviation industry has set an aspirational goal to reach net zero carbon by 2050 . SAF presents the best near-term opportunity to meet these goals. The Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge , announced in 2021, brings together multiple federal agencies for the purpose of expanding domestic consumption to 3 billion gallons in 2030 and 35 billion gallons in 2050 while achieving at least a 50% reduction in lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions.

Renewable hydrocarbon biofuels offer many benefits, including:

Engine and infrastructure compatibility —SAF blended with conventional Jet A can be used in existing aircraft and infrastructure.

Fewer emissions —Compared with conventional jet fuel, 100% SAF has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 94% depending on feedstock and technology pathway.

More flexibility —SAF is a replacement for conventional jet fuel, allowing for multiple products from various feedstocks and production technologies.

SAF can be produced from non-petroleum-based renewable feedstocks including, but not limited to, the food and yard waste portion of municipal solid waste, woody biomass, fats/greases/oils, and other feedstocks. SAF production is in its early stages, with three known commercial producers:

  • World Energy began SAF production in 2016 at its Paramount, California, facility and initially supplied fuel to Los Angeles International Airport prior to supplying additional California airports.
  • International producer Neste began supplying SAF to San Francisco International Airport in 2020 before expanding to other California airports in 2021 and 2022, as well as Aspen/Pitkin County Airport and Telluride Regional Airport, both in Colorado.
  • Montana Renewables LLC began production in partnership with Shell at an existing petroleum production plant in 2023, supplying fuel to several partner airlines.

Additional new domestic plants are expected. Many airlines have signed agreements with existing and future SAF producers to use all their expected output. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) collects renewable fuel data as part of the Renewable Fuel Standard, which provides an approximate consumption for novel biofuels such as SAF. EPA's data show that approximately 5 million gallons of SAF were consumed in 2021, 15.84 million gallons in 2022, and 24.5 million gallons in 2023.

There are multiple technology pathways to produce fuels approved by ASTM and blending limitations based on these pathways. ASTM D7566 Standard Specification for Aviation Turbine Fuel Containing Synthesized Hydrocarbons dictates fuel quality standards for non-petroleum-based jet fuel and outlines approved SAF-based fuels and the percent allowable in a blend with Jet A. All three existing plants use the hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids pathway shown in the table on this page. New domestic plants using the alcohol-to-jet pathway with ethanol as a feedstock are expected. ASTM D1655 Standard Specification for Aviation Turbine Fuels allows co-processing of biomass feedstocks at a petroleum refinery in blends up to 5%.

Both ASTM standards are continuously updated to allow for advancements in technology to produce SAF. DOE's Sustainable Aviation Fuel Review of Technical Pathways provides details on various SAF production pathways. The pathways below represent only those currently approved by ASTM. Processes and tests exist for the approval of other feedstocks, fuel molecules, and blending limits, and the types of approved fuels will increase as these are evaluated through this process.

Distribution

SAF must be blended with Jet A prior to use in an aircraft. If SAF is co-processed with conventional Jet A at an existing petroleum refinery, the fuel would flow through the supply chain in a business-as-usual model via pipeline to terminals and onwards by pipeline or truck to airports. It is expected that SAF produced at biofuels facilities would be blended with Jet A at existing fuel terminals and then delivered to airports by pipeline or truck. The fuels could also be blended at the terminal directly upstream of an airport or thousands of miles away and transported by pipeline or barge to a terminal near the airport. There would be no change to fuel operations at the airport, as airports are expected to continue to receive blended fuel in the same pipelines and trucks as they do today. While it is technically possible to blend fuels at an airport, it is not the most practical or cost-effective method due to the need for additional equipment, staff, and insurance. Due to strict fuel quality standards, it is preferable to certify SAF as ASTM D1655 upstream of an airport.

Diagram of an airport fuel supply chain. Imported oil and domestic oil go through a refinery and then to storage before passing through a pipeline or being transported by barge/ship, rail, or truck to a fuel terminal and then another pipeline or being transported by truck to an airport. In some cases, the oil refinery is located at the airport. For sustainable aviation fuel, the fuel is transported to a transmodal facility by rail or truck before being transported to a fuel terminal and then to the airport by pipeline or truck. Imported jet fuel and imported sustainable aviation fuel skip the refinery step but follow the rest of the pathway for oil.

Research and Development

The U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. Department of Transportation, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture support research, development, and analysis for SAF.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge

  • Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge Roadmap

Sustainable Aviation Fuel Review of Technical Pathways

Sustainable Aviation Fuel Tax Credit Analysis

  • U.S. Airport Infrastructure and Sustainable Aviation Fuel

Toward Net-Zero Sustainable Aviation Fuel With Wet Waste–Derived Volatile Fatty Acids

Port Authority of New York and New Jersey SAF Study

More Information

Learn more about SAF at the links below. The Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC) and DOE do not endorse any companies or services described on this site (see disclaimer ).

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  • MIT Greenhouse Gas Accounting Guidelines for Sustainable Aviation Fuel

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Renewables 2022  includes a data dashboard which enables users to explore historical data and forecasts for the electricity, biofuels for transport and heat sectors. It also allows users to compare with previous forecasts, starting with Renewables 2020.

Renewables 2022 dataset  gives full access to all the data in Excel format, plus additional premium data for the electricity sector, including additional historical years.

Renewables 2022 dataset  includes historical and forecast data (2022 to 2027) for:

  • Renewable electricity capacity and generation data for main and accelerated case including hydropower, onshore wind, offshore wind, bioenergy for power, solar PV, geothermal, CSP and ocean;
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Renewables, including solar, wind, hydro, biofuels and others, are at the centre of the transition to a less carbon-intensive and more sustainable energy system.

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  21. Emissions from Electric Vehicles

    Station Data by State Download Station Data Laws & Incentives. Search All; Federal; State; Key Legislation ... U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Alternative Fuels Data Center. EERE » AFDC » Fuels & Vehicles » Electricity. ... Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Analysis of U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle-Fuel Pathways: A ...

  22. Sustainable Aviation Fuel

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) collects renewable fuel data as part of the Renewable Fuel Standard, which provides an approximate consumption for novel biofuels such as SAF. EPA's data show that approximately 5 million gallons of SAF were consumed in 2021, 15.84 million gallons in 2022, and 24.5 million gallons in 2023.

  23. Renewables 2022 dataset

    Renewables 2022 includes a data dashboard which enables users to explore historical data and forecasts for the electricity, biofuels for transport and heat sectors. It also allows users to compare with previous forecasts, starting with Renewables 2020. Renewables 2022 dataset gives full access to all the data in Excel format, plus additional ...

  24. PDF Renewable Energy Data, Analysis, and Decisions Viewed through a Case

    NREL researchers, in partnership with USAID, have developed the Renewable Energy Explorer, a platform that is focused on linking high-quality renewable energy data and analysis to decision making for renewable energy transitions. This work recognizes the importance of high-quality renewable energy data and related datasets.